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Why you should support the Lib Dems as the best alternative to the Conservatives in the Daventry constituency

December 6, 2019 4:23 PM
By Andrew Simpson

The Background Michael Heseltine endorses the Lib Dems

  • Daventry constituency has returned a Conservative MP at every election since the constituency was created in 1974.
  • At the last election the current MP, Chris Heaton Harris secured nearly 64% of the vote and had a majority of just under 22,000. See here for the last results https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daventry_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • So even if all the opposition agreed to support a single candidate they couldn't win based on the past results.
  • To win Daventry constituency any party has to win over support from Conservative voters.
  • In the EU referendum in the Daventry District results the split was 58.5% for Leave and 41.5% for Remain - roughly 28,000 votes for Leave and 20,000 for Remain.
  • So to win you not only have to win support from Conservative voters but also those who voted Leave in the EU Referendum.

Key Recent Changes in Public Opinion

But there has been a number of key elections in the area which indicates public opinion is changing.

  • The EU Elections in May 2019 saw the Liberal Democrats come second with 20% of the vote share and the Conservatives third and Labour fourth.
  • In July the Liberal Democrats won a seat off of the Conservatives in a Daventry District Council by-election in Brixworth with a 33% swing. Labour dropped to a poor third place.
  • In October in another Daventry District By-election in the Abbey North seat the Lib Dems achieved 30% of the vote (up 10%) and came 2nd to the Conservatives with Labour dropping to third place.
  • In the run up to the General Election the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning hard to build up support in areas where they already hold Council seats - the Braunston & Crick and Brixworth areas. There has been little sign of campaigning from other parties.
  • The Lib Dem candidate, Andrew Simpson, is also an established local campaigner and in the 2017 County Council elections in the Braunston & Crick division he achieved 2nd place and 30% of the vote an increase of 25%!

Tactical Voting?

All the tactical voting websites use the current national opinion polls to project who to vote for and only in a handful of cases do they look at what is actually happening in a particular seat. So they are not taking into account what is happening on the ground in the Daventry constituency (although Best for Britain did recommend voting for the Liberal Democrats at the start of the campaign).

Also as stated above for any party to win in Daventry constituency you need to appeal to current Conservative voters and it is clear from opinion polls that many moderate Conservatives will not support Labour as they are horrified by the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

Conservatives & Labour have gone to the extremes.

Whilst Conservative are also horrified with Boris Johnson and the extreme approach he is taking to Brexit and at the other end of the spectrum some Labour supporters are equally put off by Jeremy Corbyn's plans to take us back to 1970's style socialism.

Remember the number of moderate Conservatives who have left or been thrown out the party - Dominic Grieve, Phillip Hammond, Dr Sarah Wollaston, David Gauke, Sam Gyimah, Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and of course Ken Clarke.

Then on Labour's side Chuka Umunna, Lucian Berger and Angela Smith who have all left Labour and joined the Lib Dems.

Plus we have seen the former Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseletine urging voters to vote for either an Independent Conservative or the Lib Dems when he said:

"Either vote for defrocked Conservative candidates…. or vote for the Lib Dems."

The Tory grandee said that Mr Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" slogan was a "great delusion" because it would herald years of further negotiations with the EU on trade and an uncertain future for Britain.

Since the election was called many local residents have told Andrew Simpson they are switching to him after voting for the Conservatives or Labour, here's a few examples of what people have been saying:

Hi Andrew - we have lived here for 41 years and have always voted Conservative...

However, the current deplorable state of Conservative and Labour, their complete lack of moral authority, principles and sincerity, coupled, with their all-consuming drive to further their personal careers at the expense of the needs of the country has led us to review our thoughts

The prospect of the UK's leaving the European Union fills us with real sadness - it's a huge mistake and our children and grandchildren will be the victims of this ill thought-out move - we fought in Europe in the two World Wars to bring peace to our world and unity with our neighbours - so, it's ironic that we are now gripped by the most devisive and dis-unifying period in our country's history since 1642, precipitated totally by the selfish behaviour of many of our politicians

We want to stop our leaving the EU - we like your message and we intend to vote for you on 12 December.

Mr & Mrs S

Dear Andrew

Thank you for your hand-delivered letter.

You have my vote in the upcoming election. (You had it in the last also).

My first ever vote was in the EC membership election in 1975. Since then I have been an almost lifelong Conservative supporter but this was ended after 2015 when they granted an EU membership referendum. Something I felt would go in favour of remain and am sure it would have, had the electorate not been misled by a completely flawed campaign and public misinformation. The events that have followed have almost certainly ensured that they will never regain my support.

Kind regards

Mr H

Dear Andrew

As former conservative voters and life long europhiles, who believe strongly that the UK should remain in the EU, we feel disenfranchised, now that the Conservative party has become just another Brexit party. We belonged to the Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, David Cameron wing of the Tories, which no longer exists and we were therefore attracted by the Libdems pro Europe stance.

You must surely have thousands of other constituents like us, who can't stand the thought of either Johnson or Corbyn as PM …..

Mr & Mrs S

So this all suggests that Andrew Simpson and the Liberal Democrats are the best alternative to the Conservatives in the Daventry constituency.